MCarloRisk for Stocks & ETFs 19.7

Stock price / probability risk analyzer & optimizer for the common man. See also our new support for top cryptocurrencies. Now with portfolio support, pairwise correlation/regression analysis of daily returns, and portfolio optimization. Computes forward (price, probability) for your share-weighted portfolio.

Unlike other folio optimizers, this code does not assume normality of returns, nor does it require you to enter volatility estimates...these are computed from public historical return data, and you can specify how far back to look to compute the volatility. Try some optimizations and compare the results with other tools!

Main data feed is the innovative IEX.

Why rely on the tea leaves of chart reading when you can apply real statistics and historical resampled data to your analysis? While charting tools such as Bollinger bands, moving averages, and candlesticks are generated only on historical data, this application takes past data and remixes it via Monte Carlo methods to generate thousands of possible future price walks, then computes the probabilities of those price outcomes. Also suitable for stock-like ETFs and short ETFs (e.g. SH = short SPY).

Estimates future price distribution using random walk theory, where random samples are chosen from the history of the stock in question.

Users can specify how far back in time to use historical data to capture only the current "epoch" or take into account long-term historical behavior.

Built-in backtesting, verification, and model tuning tools.

This application models daily stock returns as a stable stochastic process and estimates a future price distribution by Monte Carlo re-sampling from an "empirical distribution" of a user-specified subset of prior (known) daily returns.

Be sure to press the Run Monte button on the Monte Carlo tab after changing settings or downloading a new dataset.

This app downloads historical data from IEX as base data to resample. Prices are converted to daily returns [P(t)/P(t-1)] before resampling. Users can choose how far back to resample. By estimating a probability distribution of future prices at the user-specified investment horizon in this manner, risk-of-loss estimates can be provided in a thumb-rule fashion, as an initial approximation.

Reports estimated price and % loss estimates at commonly used levels of 1st percentile and 5th percentile (1% and 5% risk). Also reports median (50th percentile) price estimates at the given number of days forward. Calculations are based on daily Closing price data. An artificial shock filter is provided, which can be used to reject the resampling of prior returns that are artificially large (due to splits or other artificial re-evaluations that do not affect the underlying value of the asset). Detailed operation theory is available under the Theory tab.

The stochastic model may be tuned or calibrated by adjusting the maximum number of days backward to sample and/or a back in time linear weighting.

Stochastic Model Validation (backtest) features:

• On the Monte Carlo tab, you can withhold any number of recent days from the model and then plot the results of the stochastic risk forecast as lower-bound envelopes at 1% and 5% and all other estimated probability (risk) levels dynamically after the model run is completed.

Validation tab:

• This allows you to perform an exhaustive validation on your model by withholding several points, computing the model, comparing the forward prediction of the model versus the actual reserved data, and repeating this over time for all withheld points.

The app provider makes no claims regarding the suitability of this app for any purpose whatsoever and users should consult an investment advisor before making investment decisions.